Research · notes from the desk

What we've learned.
Published as we learn it.

Weekly notes on Bitcoin markets, what the desk is seeing, and what we changed this week. Published in public so you can read the thinking — not just the results.

Daily brief · sampleMay 4, 2026 · 3m

What our daily Bitcoin brief looks like — read one for free.

Subscribers get this every morning. Where the market sits, what the desk is biased toward, and what would make it change its mind. Read the full unredacted version.

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Year in reviewApr 22, 2026 · 7m

What our winning trades had in common — and what our losing ones did too.

A look back at the most-profitable and most-painful months of last year. Patterns we saw, lessons that stuck, what we changed.

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NoteApr 12, 2026 · 6m

Why long trades and short trades aren't mirror images.

Bitcoin doesn't move up and down the same way. Long winners and short winners have different shapes. Our exit logic adapted; results improved.

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NoteApr 4, 2026 · 8m

The rule we removed that quietly made us more money.

After thousands of trades' worth of data, one of the inputs the desk relied on turned out to be near-noise. Removing it made the rest of the picture cleaner — and lifted profitability.

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NoteMar 28, 2026 · 5m

Why doing nothing is sometimes our most profitable trade.

Empty days aren't bugs. The desk is engineered to sit out conditions it doesn't recognise — even when it means closing flat for a week.

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NoteMar 15, 2026 · 6m

The exit rule that paid for itself in three months.

Most retail traders lose because they exit poorly. We took an entry-side rule and applied its mirror to exits. The compounding effect is sneakily large.

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