What we’ve learned. Published as we learn it.
Desk notes on Bitcoin markets, what the desk is seeing, and what changed in the system. Published in public so you can read the thinking, not just the results.
What our daily Bitcoin brief looks like — read one for free.
Subscribers get this every morning. Where the market sits, what the desk is biased toward, and what would make it change its mind. Read the full unredacted version.
ReadWhat our winning trades had in common — and what our losing ones did too.
A look back at the strongest and most painful stretches in the archive. Patterns we saw, lessons that stuck, what we changed.
ReadWhy long trades and short trades aren't mirror images.
Bitcoin doesn't move up and down the same way. Long winners and short winners have different shapes, so our exit logic adapted.
ReadThe rule we removed that made the desk cleaner.
After thousands of trades' worth of data, one of the inputs the desk relied on turned out to be near-noise. Removing it made the rest of the picture cleaner.
ReadWhy doing nothing is sometimes the best trade.
Empty days aren't bugs. The desk is engineered to sit out conditions it doesn't recognise — even when it means closing flat for a week.
ReadThe exit rule that paid for itself in three months.
Most retail traders lose because they exit poorly. We took an entry-side rule and applied its mirror to exits. The compounding effect is sneakily large.
ReadThe cockpit trap: why more signals make you worse.
Seven indicators, three oscillators, five alerts. More inputs feel like more control — but the data says otherwise. Here is what happens when you subtract instead.
ReadDiscipline cannot fix a broken process.
Most traders who lose consistently are not undisciplined. They are following a process that guarantees inconsistent results. Fixing the process does more than any amount of willpower.
ReadThe market is not random. It is designed.
Stop-runs above obvious levels. Breakouts that reverse immediately. News-driven spikes that fade within minutes. These are not accidents. Here is the pattern behind them.
ReadIt is not a rigged lottery. It is a readable game.
The 'crypto is just gambling' belief is both understandable and wrong. The mechanics that make it feel random are themselves patterned — and patterns can be learned.
ReadWhy a small account is not a disadvantage.
The belief that you need significant capital to trade well gets the causality backwards. Small accounts have structural advantages that large ones cannot replicate.
ReadThe desk does not need a bull market.
Most traders only make money when everything is going up. That is not a strategy — it is beta exposure. Here is why conditions matter less than process.
ReadOperational calm is not a personality trait. It is architecture.
The traders who seem unshakeable are not built differently. They have built a process that removes most of the decisions that cause stress in the first place.
ReadThe 90% statistic is an alibi, not a sentence.
Everyone has heard that 90% of traders lose money. Fewer people ask what the 90% actually do — and whether those behaviours are avoidable.
ReadTwo signals that matter. Fifty that do not.
After thousands of closed trades and years of log data, the inputs that actually predicted outcomes were a small fraction of the ones we tracked. Here is what the simplification looked like.
ReadPrice is the effect. Liquidity is the cause.
Most retail analysis starts from price and works backwards. The desk starts from where orders are sitting and works forwards. The difference is significant.
ReadLike how the desk thinks?
Create a free account to start eligibility review for the same desk on your own exchange account. For weekly notes by email, use the subscribe box in the footer.